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Reuters @Reuters · 3h
BREAKING: Federal Reserve Chair signals rates will remain elevated longer than markets anticipated after January inflation prints at 3.1%, well above the 2% target. Treasury yields spike on the news.
PolyTell.app Economy
Fed Chair's hawkish comments suggest rate cuts are off the table for the near term, with inflation remaining sticky above target.
Will the Fed cut interest rates before July 2025?
Buy No  $10 → $16
2.3K 847 8.1K 1.2M
P
POLITICO @politico · 5h
EXCLUSIVE: Senate Majority Leader secures 64 votes for bipartisan border security package, enough to break filibuster. Floor vote expected Thursday. Both sides claim victory on key provisions.
PolyTell.app Politics
Bipartisan border deal reaches filibuster-proof majority, signaling strong likelihood of passage.
Will Senate pass the bipartisan border security bill?
Buy Yes  $10 → $14
4.7K 1.2K 12.4K 892K
BBC
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking · 6h
UK Prime Minister calls snap general election for October amid sliding poll numbers. Labour hold a 14-point lead in latest YouGov survey.
PolyTell.app Elections
Snap election called with Labour holding commanding lead in polls, suggesting high probability of government change.
Will Labour win the next UK general election?
Buy Yes  $10 → $13
11.2K 3.4K 28.7K 4.1M
PoliticsCongressWhite House
CONGRESS
Senate Leaders Race to Avert Government Shutdown as Midnight Deadline Looms
By Sarah Mitchell and James Torres · Updated 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON — Senate leaders from both parties huddled behind closed doors Tuesday as the clock ticks toward a midnight deadline that would trigger the first government shutdown in nearly two years, with both chambers scrambling to pass a continuing resolution to keep federal agencies funded.
The standoff centers on Republican demands to include border security provisions in any stopgap spending measure — a condition Democrats have repeatedly rejected. Senior aides described the talks as "tense but productive."
PolyTell.app Politics
Both parties scrambling to avoid shutdown, but disagreements on border provisions remain a major obstacle.
Will the US government avoid a shutdown in H1 2025?
Buy Yes  $10 → $19
House Speaker Johnson indicated he would bring any Senate deal directly to the floor, a procedural maneuver requiring buy-in from the Freedom Caucus — a group that has historically opposed short-term spending patches.
PolyTell.app Politics
Full-year budget passage faces significant headwinds as both parties prioritize short-term continuing resolutions.
Will Congress pass a full-year budget before April 2025?
Buy No  $10 → $14
WorldBusinessPoliticsElections
ELECTIONS · UNITED STATES
Record Early Voting Turnout Signals Competitive Races in Key Swing States
By Jennifer Wallace · Feb 18, 2025 · 4 min read
NEW YORK (Reuters) — Election officials in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona reported record-breaking early voting figures on Tuesday, with turnout running 34% above comparable periods in the last midterm cycle, according to data compiled by the U.S. Election Project.
PolyTell.app Elections
Record early turnout in Pennsylvania suggests a highly competitive Senate race with slight Democratic advantage in urban counties.
Will Republicans win the Pennsylvania Senate seat?
Buy No  $10 → $18
The surge comes as both parties deploy unprecedented resources into ground operations, with over 100,000 volunteers mobilized per side in battleground states. Analysts note high early turnout traditionally favors parties with strong mobilization infrastructure.
PolyTell.app Elections
Democratic Senate control faces headwinds with multiple competitive races and an unfavorable map.
Will Democrats retain control of the Senate after 2025?
Buy No  $10 → $16
AIStartupsVentureCrypto
AI · FUNDING
OpenAI Closes $40B Round at $300B Valuation, Largest Private Tech Raise in History
By Maya Patel · Feb 19, 2025 · 6 min read
OpenAI has officially closed a $40 billion funding round at a $300 billion valuation, sources confirmed to TechCrunch — making it the largest private technology fundraise in history. The round was led by SoftBank's Vision Fund 3 with major contributions from Microsoft.
PolyTell.app Tech
Record-breaking funding round cements OpenAI's dominance, but maintaining this valuation depends on revenue growth and model performance.
Will OpenAI maintain a $300B+ valuation through 2025?
Buy Yes  $10 → $16
CEO Sam Altman confirmed the company plans to launch its next-generation model — internally codenamed "Orion" — within 60 days. Early benchmarks suggest the model achieves human-level performance on standardized reasoning tasks.
PolyTell.app Tech
Internal timelines and enterprise previews strongly suggest an imminent launch of OpenAI's next frontier model.
Will OpenAI launch a new frontier model before April 2025?
Buy Yes  $10 → $12
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